Research on cross regional green certificate bilateral distributed robust trading strategy based on Bayesian theory

Abstract

To ensure the effective implementation of the compulsory green certificate transaction in China, a multi-participant cross-regional green certificate bilateral transaction model considering the relevant technical characteristics of the unit is proposed to solve the problems such as the mismatch between the supply and demand of green certificates and the reduction of the transaction plan by the grid operation constraints in the current green certificate transaction. To mobilize the initiative of participants, the model adopts the bilateral transaction of free negotiation. To balance the interests of transaction participants, the paper analyzes the complex interaction of multi participants in cross-regional bilateral transactions by using cooperative game theory. Simultaneously, the model considers multiple uncertainties among participants and takes into account the correlation of photovoltaic power in multiple periods. Based on the distributed robust theory, the multivariate nonlinear model and mixed-effect model of Bayesian are proposed to construct the fuzzy sets of the probability distribution for wind and photovoltaic power. On this basis, the paper analyzes the strategic behaviors of multi participants affected by uncertainty factors in the cross-regional green certificate bilateral trade through a numerical example, and quantitatively analyzes the sensitivity of each participant’s transaction plan affected by uncertainty factors. The results show that the degree of competition will affect the strategic behavior and income of the participants, and the full cooperation mode can not only avoid the risk of fluctuations in the transaction price and transaction power within the alliance but also stabilize the supply and demand of green certificate transactions.