Research on Contribution Evaluation of Coupling Elements in Air Traffic Safety Risks

Abstract

To the characteristics of air traffic management system, the safety risk coupling elements are analyzed on human factors, equipment factors, environment factors and management factors, the contribution of air traffic safety risk coupling elements is analyzed. The contribution of coupling elements are assessed by extension analytic hierarchy process (EAHP), taking inner communication risks, for instance, and the feasibility of the method is demonstrated by examination. The research objective is to determine the primary coupling element of the air traffic safety risk, propose the targeted pre-control program, so as to improve effectiveness of air traffic safety risk management. 1. INTRODUCTION In recent years, China's civil aviation industry has developed rapidly. With the rapid growth of flights and air traffic flow, air traffic security risks have become increasingly prominent. The pressures of protecting the safe operation of flights have increased gradually, which leads the higher requirements of air traffic safety management. Aviation accidents, incidents and unsafe events often results from interaction between man, machine and the environment, management. Air traffic safety risks usually present very complex nonlinear coupling process. Determining the coupling mechanisms of air traffic safety risks, mining hazard incentives and presenting a pre-control strategies, is a key risk management of the air traffic control. Based on the statistical analysis of China Civil Aviation unsafe incident report, air traffic control incidents were 0, 2, and 1 in 2009, 2010, and 2011, respectively. The other unsafe events were 13, 28 and 34, in 2009, 2010, and 2011, respectively which presents the upward trend. The unsafe events of air traffic control in 2011 is mainly caused by runway incursion, dangerously close to the flight conflict as well as communication interrupt type event, accounting for 71% of the security risks of the ATC. The above events are just the tip of the iceberg, which reflects the poor management of part of the control units, the weak sense of duty, the non-serious style, the lack of qualification and capacity and the poor awareness of observing law and discipline. Therefore, it has important practical significance to investigate the