Research on Chinese Import Trade Based on Mulitiple Linear Regression Model

Abstract

This paper uses OLS parameter estimation method and GDP, per capita disposable income, export, foreign investment and exchange rate fluctuations as the five factors for our multiple linear regression analysis, and the economic significance, statistical significance and econometric test are made. The conclusions are that: (1) the main factors that affect the import trade are GDP, urban residents per capita disposable income, total exports, influence of foreign investment on import trade, and fluctuations in the exchange rate, which has a negative influence on import trade. The two factors: GDP and the impact of foreign investment, have a serious overlap relationship and causes the col-linearity problem. The influence of exchange rate on import trade, can display by urban residents per capita disposable income. (2) According to the results of the test for heteroscedasticity can be concluded that the effect of 2007-2014 data of the model don't have heteroscedasticity. (3) The autocorrelation test shows that, the import trade by a year ago has majorly impact on the nowadays, total imports often with national fundamentals associated closely. First three quarter of imported trade resulted in an increase in the import trade increased. In front of the fourth quarter of imports often have a negative impact.