Research on chaotic instantaneous generator output power prediction with global model

Abstract

The operation process of equipment and personnel controls for power plant are recorded in the real-time data. It could provide us information for decision making, maintenance and incident handling. Instantaneous generator output power is an important parameter which shows the operation status of the adjusting and control equipment. The information of data characteristic and the development of the overall trends hidden in the data are important for decision-making. In this paper, the global prediction of chaos method was used to predict the instantaneous generator output power. The sampling data set in our paper is normalized in order to make the time series data in proper range. One step prediction is realized by the global prediction of chaos method. Two model conditions were used to test the result. The entire program is written in matlab 7.0 (Math works). The results showed that the method was proper and it was easy to get good model from the data. At the same time, the method can also be widely used in the data research and prediction in the short time.