Abstract
The carbon emission of the power systems accounts for nearly 40% of the whole society carbon emission, and it is the key area of future emission reduction. At this stage, coal-fired power units are the largest carbon emission source in the power system. In order to more accurately simulate the carbon emission trend of the power system, this paper proposes a power system carbon emission prediction model that considers the change trend of coal consumption of coal-fired power units. Firstly, a carbon emission measurement model of power system based on carbon emission factor is established; secondly, combined with the national average coal consumption of coal-fired power units from 2005 to 2020, a load forecasting and coal consumption forecasting model of coal-fired power units based on Logistic curve are proposed; For example, considering the low-carbon transition of the power structure, the carbon emission trend of the power system in the medium and long term in Fujian Province is simulated, and relevant suggestions for low-carbon development are put forward.
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