Research on carbon emission peak prediction and path of China’s public buildings: Scenario analysis based on LEAP model

Abstract

The building sector is an important field of energy consumption and carbon emission. Public buildings currently account for the majority of building energy consumption in China. But at present, there is a lack of research on the potential carbon peak and time of public buildings. Therefore, this research focuses on carbon peak prediction and path of China's public buildings based on the LEAP model. Firstly, a carbon emission prediction framework is proposed with the assistance of the LEAP model. Subsequently, according to the historical development of key factors, various carbon emission scenarios of public buildings are established, taking into account energy efficiency improvement and energy transition measures. The key findings obtained from the analysis of these scenarios are as follows: (1) Limiting the building space can help to achieve carbon peak, however, in the benchmark scenario, public buildings are unable to do so. (2) Both the moderate emission reduction scenario and the peak emission reduction scenario can meet the target of carbon peaking by 2030, and in the peak emission reduction scenario, the public construction sector may almost reach carbon neutrality by 2060. (3) The peak time can be advanced by boosting energy efficiency of new buildings, energy conservation of existing buildings, renewable energy application and power grid cleaning. (4) Both independent measures of the public construction sector and external measures are essential, with power grid cleaning making the most significant contribution to carbon neutrality in public buildings. Finally, this research provides policy recommendations to support public buildings in achieving their carbon emission reduction goals, which not only has the potential to improve carbon emission forecasting in the construction sector, but can also provide useful reference for relevant decision makers.