Research on and application of the operational storm surge ensemble forecast model in the Bay of Bengal

Abstract

The coastal region of the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is one of the most vulnerable areas to storm surges caused by tropical cyclones (TCs). Historical data indicate that the BoB experiences two seasons in the annual cycle of TC formation, namely, the pre-monsoon season (April to May) and the post-monsoon season (October–December). The frequency of post-monsoon cyclones is significantly higher than that of pre-monsoon cyclones. Very severe cyclonic storms and stronger-intensity storms can cause disastrous storm surges. Based on the accuracy of current forecasts of the path, intensity and radius of maximum wind of TCs in the BoB, a total of 153 ensemble members are automatically generated according to the subjective deterministic forecast results of the TCs, basically covering all possible TCs. A graphics processing unit (GPU)-based parallel storm surge forecast model is established and validated for the coastal areas of the BoB. The speedup ratio of the model can exceed 300, which can meet the computational time requirements of large-scale ensemble numerical forecasts. For the 2020 Amphan cyclone, the costliest cyclone ever recorded in the North Indian Ocean (NIO), the numerical ensemble forecast model can provide rapid and accurate storm surge ensemble and numerical probability forecast products for the BoB. The probability of coastal flooding risk can be evaluated for the coastal areas of the BoB, enabling reasonable and valuable recommendations to be made to evacuate people and protect property near dangerous areas.