Abstract
At present, the number of oil and gas gathering and transportation pipelines is numerous, and leakage accidents occur frequently. Each year, due to pipeline failure, there are immeasurable consequences for people and the environment around the affected pipelines. In order to reduce the risk of leakage accidents in heavy oil gathering pipelines and prevent the occurrence of major spills, it is of great significance to carry out safety assessments of them. However, failure data of these pipelines is seriously deficient and statistical methods used to evaluate pipeline safety are incompatible. Therefore, this paper proposes a risk assessment system for heavy oil gathering pipelines in the absence of failure data. Firstly, a Bayesian network (BN) for the leak safety evaluation of heavy oil gathering pipelines is established via mapping from a bow-tie (BT) model. Then, information diffusion theory is combined with fuzzy set theory to obtain the failure probability of each factor affecting the pipeline failure, and then the failure probability of the pipeline is obtained by the full probability formula. In addition, in order to assess the extent of consequences due to accidents, variable fuzzy set theory is used to comprehensively consider the consequences of the leakage of heavy oil gathering pipelines. Finally, the above two parts are combined to form a safety assessment system to realize risk management and control for pipelines, which is necessary to ensure the safety of heavy oil gathering pipelines.
Highlights
With the sharp demand for oil and gas consumption, the construction speed of oil and gas gathering and transportation networks is increasing
In the BT model, basic events, the intermediate events, and the top event are respectively represented as the root nodes, along with the child nodes and the leaf node in the equivalent Bayesian network (BN), and the security barriers correspond to the security nodes, but the logical relationships between the security nodes, consequence nodes, and leaf node need to be considered
Based on the consideration of personal injury and direct economic loss, this research conforms to the current development theme, increasing the indicators of environmental damage and social influence factors, and applying variable fuzzy set theory to evaluate the consequences of leakage failure of heavy oil gathering pipelines comprehensively
Summary
With the sharp demand for oil and gas consumption, the construction speed of oil and gas gathering and transportation networks is increasing. Carrying out safety assessment for them and reducing the probability of accidents is one of the most important issues in the operation and management of oil and gas fields [2,3]. Kent Muhlbauer, which is the world’s first monograph on the risk assessment of oil and gas pipelines. A number of methods have been proposed for initial safety assessment, in heavy oil gathering pipelines. Research on theon consequences of failure assessment of heavy oil gathering pipelines. This paper proposes a safetysystem assessment whichsystem consistswhich of twoconsists parts, one is the failure possibility research, and the other is a comprehensive of two parts, one is the failure possibility research, and the other is a evaluation of the leakage consequences. Thetwo above a safety evaluation to realize risk and control of pipelines.
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