Research on a Prediction Model of Water Quality Parameters in a Marine Ranch Based on LSTM-BP

Abstract

Water quality is an important factor affecting marine pasture farming. Water quality parameters have the characteristics of time series, showing instability and nonlinearity. Previous water quality prediction models are usually based on specific assumptions and model parameters, which may have limitations for complex water environment systems. Therefore, in order to solve the above problems, this paper combines long short-term memory (LSTM) and backpropagation (BP) neural networks to construct an LSTM-BP combined water quality parameter prediction model and uses the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) to evaluate the model. Experimental results show that the prediction performance of the LSTM-BP model is better than other models. On the RMSE and MAE indicators, the LSTM-BP model is 76.69% and 79.49% lower than other models, respectively. On the NSE index, the LSTM-BP model has improved by 34.13% compared with other models. The LSTM-BP model can effectively reflect time series characteristics and nonlinear mapping capabilities. This research provides a new method and reference for the prediction of water quality parameters in marine ranching and further enables the intelligent and sustainable development of marine ranching.