Abstract
Unbalanced supply and demand, bottleneck of transport capacity, seasonal cycle, and other factors lead to fragile supply chain of fresh agricultural products led by the platform, impeding smooth operation of the supply chain and even causing disruption risk. This paper studies the short-term and long-term vulnerability of the platform leading fresh agricultural product supply chain under the influence of logistics capital flow and information flow, defines its structure and the meaning of its vulnerability, analyzes the vulnerability of each link, and finds out the existing weak links in the supply chain through empirical research. The probability of accident is quantitatively analyzed by using the Bayesian Network. Firstly, the bow-tie model is used to identify the cause and consequence of the accident, and then it is transformed into the Bayesian Network model; then, the “Precursor Incident” information and prior probability are introduced to derive the posterior accident occurrence probability, and the probability of accident occurrence changing with time is quantitatively analyzed; finally, the dynamic risk calculation of fresh agricultural product trading center dominated by a certain platform was carried out. The results show that, with the increase of supply chain operation time and Precursor Incident, the probability of short-term supply chain vulnerability and accident risk present a significant increase trend, while the probability of long-term supply chain vulnerability and accident risk present a significant decrease trend. Therefore, it is suggested that enterprises should establish a dynamic risk evaluation system to monitor and predict the probability of event vulnerability, pay attention to “Precursor Incident,” and take measures to reduce it, such as effective integration of supply chain principal information, timely improvement of information integrated technologies, and comprehensive training on food safety and moral credibility.
Highlights
The perishability, nonstandard, seasonal, regional, and periodicity of fresh agricultural-food (FAF) is different from the particularity of industrial products, and the degree of organization of agricultural production and logistics operation is too low, the degree of information integration is not high, the cold chain infrastructure is weak, and the quality traceability system is lacking, resulting in the shortage of supply chain system of fresh agricultural products in China [1].The circulation of fresh agricultural products involves the survival of hundreds of millions of farmers, and relates to the quality of life of the masses, and has become a social hot issue concerning the national economy and the people’s livelihood
This paper studies the short-term and long-term vulnerability of the platform leading fresh agricultural product supply chain under the influence of logistics capital flow and information flow, defines its structure and the meaning of its vulnerability, analyzes the vulnerability of each link, and finds out the existing weak links in the supply chain through empirical research
The process of vulnerability transmission is as follows: the upstream link mainly includes farmers and fresh agricultural products circulation processing enterprises and fresh agricultural products suppliers/primary purchasers; since more than 70% of the downstream demand structure of fresh agricultural products is retail, the retail demand for fresh agricultural products has a great impact on supply chain [9]; the middle and lower reaches of the supply chain are simplified as follows: trading market, logistics enterprises, downstream distributors, and retailers of fresh agricultural products; the platform is the main bottleneck of FAF-SC, in which the transfer function connects all the upstream and downstream links
Summary
The perishability, nonstandard, seasonal, regional, and periodicity of fresh agricultural-food (FAF) is different from the particularity of industrial products, and the degree of organization of agricultural production and logistics operation is too low, the degree of information integration is not high, the cold chain infrastructure is weak, and the quality traceability system is lacking, resulting in the shortage of supply chain system of fresh agricultural products in China [1]. The smooth operation of the platform-led fresh agricultural product supply chain (referred to as “PD-FAF-SC”) has far-reaching significance for ensuring the sustainable development of China’s fresh agricultural products circulation and related industries. In addition to supply and demand data, PD-FAF-SC vulnerability indicators under big data make use of natural disasters on supply chain platform, climate change, agricultural production factors, market platform infrastructure and management, cold chain logistics, supply and marketing models, relevant industry policy information, and the bullwhip effect of the supply chain to cross-reproduce the vulnerability of PD-FAF-SC. The combination of fault tree and Bayesian network is used to analyze the short-term and long-term vulnerability of the supply chain to obtain the risk transfer process and its influencing factors and quantitatively calculate the results and through the empirical research to find out the weak link of PD-FAF-SC [8]. Some reasonable suggestions are put forward to solve the problems such as unbalanced supply and demand of fresh agricultural products, and difficulties in continuous supply under seasonal consumption peaks or emergency management conditions caused by information asymmetry, natural disasters, food safety, etc
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