Research of the Building Energy Efficiency Data Analysis Based on Time Series Algorithm in Anhui Province, China

Abstract

Nowadays the researches of building energy efficiency mainly focus on the development of the related technologies and management measures, but the regional policy EIA have a greater impact on the development of building energy efficiency in China. In this paper, the statistical data combined with the actual situation of building energy efficiency during the period of the Eleventh-Five-Year in Anhui Province, China. Use exponential smoothing method of time series algorithm for forecast and analysis of building energy consumption and energy saving in Anhui Province. First, take six different values as the exponential smoothing constants, the predictive values are calculated under the different exponential smoothing constants. Then compare and analyze the curves through the errors between the predictive values and the actual values, and determine the group of the curves of which the trend closest to the trend of actual values. For the actual data are affected by many kinds of factors that exist fluctuations, the method for predictive values correction was put forward. Using the trend extrapolation, the predictive values is corrected. Also provides theoretical guidance for the future work in Anhui Province and other similar places.