Research of Risk in Supply Chain Based on Fuzzy Evaluation and BP Neural Network

Abstract

Because of the complexity of the structure , instability of the external environment condition ,etc., supply chain prone to produce kinds of risk, once the risk take place ,it will result enormous harm, even the fracture to supply chain, and this will bring enormous loss to enterprise. Risk evaluation is an important link of supply chain risk management. Effective management of supply chain risk enables the chain more richly flexibly and stronger resistance avoids or reduces losses brought by the risk, improves the operation efficiency, lower the cost, and these are favorable to the sustainable development of enterprises. Because of the significant of supply chain, scholars of domestic and international carry on great deal of research of the question about the risk of supply chain in recent years, but the great majority are qualitative analysis, such as propose how to manage and control and supply the risk of the chain, seldom involve risk evaluation of supply chain. Currently lots of methods are used to evaluate the risk at home and abroad, such as analytic hierarchy process (AHP), principal component analysis, gray systems analysis, fuzzy synthesis evaluation and so on. Neural networks and its applications received universal attention in recent years, especially BP neural network. In view of the multiple factors and the occurrence of a risk often starts with uncertainty. Therefore, based on drawing and summing-up former research production, this text brings forward the method combined with BP neural network and fuzzy evaluation to analyze and identify the risk of supply chain. II. ANALYZE OF FACTORS Risk of supply chain is a kind of potential threat that is the possibility of supply chain deviates from predetermined management objectives. There are lots of reasons of supply chain risk emerging, it may be that it deviates from the scheduled time goal because of the shortage that results from the products were not sent in time, deviates from the predetermined cost objectives because of operation cost overspends, or deviates from predetermined quality goal because the goods can not meet the quality requirement, etc.. The fuzzy comprehensive analytic approach combines the fuzzy appraisal method and risk factor analytical method which confirms the risk coefficient and the probability of risk occurrence by carrying on fuzzy appraisal analyzing. The method fuzzy comprehensive appraisal of the risk factor can reflect the risk degree of every key element in detail, and it helps to investigate every factor to the whole influence. The application of this method has the following several steps show in figure1.