Research of Estimates of Tax Revenue: An Overview

Ondřej Bayer

doi:10.18267/j.efaj.107

Abstract

The paper deals with a summary of findings in the area of tax forecasts. It describes the basic methodology for predicting tax revenues, both in terms of the macroeconomic approach and from a microeconomic perspective. The microeconomic approach used microsimulation methods with methods based on tax elasticities. The macroeconomic approach explains the basic characteristics of regression analysis and time series analysis. It also describes methods for assessing the quality of predictions, together with the distribution of basic statistical error estimate.

Highlights

Estimating tax revenue is a crucial for the creation of state budgets, because each government is able to determine exactly just spending, implementation of the revenue budget is only able to estimate
The aim of this paper is to describe the procedures used for estimating tax revenues in the Czech Republic and abroad
Many scientific papers deal with problems of tax revenue estimating, but some of them only marginally

Summary

Introduction

Estimating tax revenue is a crucial for the creation of state budgets, because each government is able to determine exactly just spending, implementation of the revenue budget is only able to estimate. The aim of this paper is to describe the procedures used for estimating tax revenues in the Czech Republic and abroad. Many scientific papers deal with problems of tax revenue estimating, but some of them only marginally. In the case of the Czech Republic devoted to the topic Klazar (2003), who in his work creates estimation models for the Czech tax system and subsequently test the accuracy of models with the Ministry of Finance. This work is subsequently extended by Bayer (2011a) and Podhradská (2008), who extend these models. Bayer (2011b) devotes his work creating micro-simulation with an emphasis on quality testing of government predictions. Bayer (2012b) using a micro-simulation tests the possible impacts of unification of VAT rates to Czech taxpayers Špalek – Moravanský (2005) test the bias of government tax estimates and deeply concerned with errors estimates. Bayer (2012b) using a micro-simulation tests the possible impacts of unification of VAT rates to Czech taxpayers

Objectives

Methods

Findings

Conclusion