Research note: Climate change and the demand for summer tourism on Minnesota's North Shore

Abstract

Very little outdoor recreation and tourism research uses scientifically-grounded climate change projections or weather data to predict future recreation demand using standard contingent behavior methods. The demand studies that have presented visitors with projected changes to climate and weather are limited to predicting visitation demand in a single season at a single destination. This research note reports a replication of a winter tourism demand model for the summer tourism season at the same nature-based tourism destination. A comparison of model findings between the two seasons allows us to determine if, and how, summer and winter tourism demand to a specific destination will be affected by climate change. While winter demand is driven by multiple dimensions of place meanings, summer travel is motivated solely by how the destination shapes individuals’ identities. This replication also considers an additional weather variable – daily high temperature on the day visitors completed the survey – to better understand the relationship between in situ weather conditions and recreationists’ intended travel behaviors. Management implications•North Shore visitors’ future travel behavior, contingent upon warmer temperatures and altered environmental conditions, was not significantly different than past travel behavior.•The projected conditions presented in the scenarios might not have been severe enough that respondents believed they would substantially impact recreational opportunities on the North Shore.•The maximum daily high temperature on the day a respondent was surveyed was not significantly related to contingent travel behaviors.•Recreation resource managers and those in the tourism industry are not likely to see substantial shifts in tourism demand to the region over the next 20 years.