Abstract
AbstractFurther research into seismicity caused by natural gas production from the Groningen field is necessary to improve the assessment of seismic risk and develop means to control and reduce it. Research into subsurface aspects is primarily of relevance to assess the seismic hazard component in the cause-and-effect chain that governs the seismic risk. It requires a wide range of research activities that can be broadly classified as follows: •Increasing understanding of the physical mechanisms that govern production-induced seismicity, in particular source mechanisms, compaction behaviour, propagation of energy to the surface, and the effects of fluctuating production.•Reducing uncertainty by acquiring additional field data to improve statistical inference, and developing statistical methods and procedures that can cope with the non-stationary nature of the process.•Developing tools and techniques to improve risk management, and support operational control and policy measures under uncertainty.An essential requirement for further research will be the possibility of developing competing theories for many aspects of the modelling chain. This requires an overall hazard and risk assessment methodology that can accommodate multiple models, and an organisational structure that facilitates the comparison of competing approaches while safeguarding their independent development. This will have to be supported by the availability of reliable data via shared databases. Finally, the scientific community should be prepared to make a major effort to translate their research results into popular scientific versions in order to keep stakeholders abreast of progressive insight into the origin, predictability and prevention of induced seismicity.
Highlights
Research into seismicity induced by natural gas production from the Groningen field has recently experienced very strong growth, driven by increasing seismic activity in the field, the associated safety risks and large societal impact
Current research into the subsurface aspects of productioninduced seismicity in Groningen is primarily aimed at quantifying the seismic hazard, typically expressed in terms of the probability of exceeding a certain peak ground acceleration (PGA) resulting from seismic events
Developing control procedures Several of the measures to reduce the risk of induced seismicity from gas production in Groningen involve changes in operation of the field
Summary
Research into seismicity induced by natural gas production from the Groningen field has recently experienced very strong growth, driven by increasing seismic activity in the field, the associated safety risks and large societal impact. An integrated large-scale research effort into all aspects of the observed production-induced seismicity in the Groningen field, independently of NAM, has not yet been started This is notwithstanding the fact that already in 2012 a joint effort of Dutch universities and applied research institutes resulted in a proposal to the Dutch Government for such a National Induced Seismicity Platform, which did not lead to any tangible results. In 2015, the Dutch Safety Board issued a report in which it recommended installing ‘a structural and long-term research programme within which integral and independent scientific and applied research into these problems is performed’ (see OVV, 2015). An overview of the associated research topics that we identified is given in Table 1, together with a classification of laboratory experiments, field experiments and theoretical research (interpretation, numerical modelling and theory development)
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