Abstract
We show that university rankings in economics based on long-run citation counts can be easily predicted using early citations. The rank correlation between universities’ cumulative citations received over ten years for economics articles published in 2003 and 2004 and citations received in 2003 to 2004 alone is 0.91 in the UK and 0.82 in Australia. We compare these citation-based university rankings with the rankings of the 2008 Research Assessment Exercise in the UK and the 2010 Excellence in Research assessment in Australia. Rank correlations are quite strong but there are differences between rankings based on this type of peer review and rankings based on citation counts. However, if assessors are willing to consider citation analysis to assess some disciplines as is the case for the natural sciences and psychology in Australia there seems no reason to not include economics in this set.
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