Research and development of field theory-based three-dimensional risk assessment. Part I: Optimization of risk reduction

Abstract

Recently, three-dimensional (3D) risk assessment has been developed and considered a significant method for the risk control of severe disasters and accidents. For field theory-based 3D risk assessment, the risk gradient (RG) is a significant concept. Proper mathematical processing of the RG enables the exploration of effective information in 3D risk assessment. Therefore, a novel 3D risk assessment method called the optimization of risk reduction (ORR) is proposed based on field theory in this study. With regard to the ORR, the steepest descent method (SDM) is employed to process the calculation of the RG results, and the optimal risk reduction route (ORRR) is obtained afterwards. Then, the risk isosurface and risk isoline computed by field theory are combined with the ORRR for further analysis and evaluation. The evaluation results are conductive to making decisions regarding risk control. Subsequently, the ORR is used for the 3D risk assessment of fire and explosion accidents caused by storage tanks in a coal chemical industry plant. The optimal evacuation routes and construction planning are determined for risk control based on the evaluation of risks with respect to people. Moreover, evaluation results show that the ORR provides wider application of the proposed method for the risk control of constructions, vehicles and other risk receptors.