Research and application of an innovative combined model based on a modified optimization algorithm for wind speed forecasting

Abstract

Wind energy is emerging as a promising substitute for conventional energy and plays a pivotal role in the power industry. For wind speed forecasting, many challenges have exposed due to its fluctuation and intermittence. To address these difficulties, different models have been adopted to various wind speed time series in previous studies. However, few methodologies have focused on the importance of model parameter optimization or data pre-processing, resulting in undesirable forecasting performance. In this study, an innovative combined model that combines data pre-processing, modified optimization algorithms, three neural networks and an effective deciding weight method is proposed for short-term wind speed forecasting. To improve the forecasting capacity of the combined model, a modified optimization algorithm is proposed and employed to determine the parameters of the single models. Furthermore, a deciding weight method based on multivariate statistical estimation is applied for weight optimization. Additionally, ten-minute wind speed data from a wind farm in Penglai, China, are selected for multi-step ahead forecasting. The results obtained confirmed an adequate approximation of the actual wind speed series and a significant improvement of the forecasting accuracy of the proposed model.