Repurposing, co-processing and greenhouse gas mitigation – The Brazilian refining sector under deep decarbonization scenarios: A case study using integrated assessment modeling

Abstract

Deep decarbonization scenarios indicate a decline in fossil oil usage in the coming decades, meaning that oil refineries must adapt. This work evaluates the refining sector in deep decarbonization pathways using Brazil as a case study. BLUES – a national integrated assessment model – is employed to investigate the evolution of the sector in mitigation scenarios until 2050. The production of feedstocks for the petrochemical industry, of fuels for the aviation and maritime sectors, and biomass co-processing are analyzed. These strategies may bring resilience to the sector. The potential for avoiding emissions in refineries' operations is also explored. Findings show that the refining sector operates at 70% and 74% of its nameplate capacity in decarbonization scenarios. These results are used as the starting point for a detailed analysis of Brazilian refineries. Results show that the employment of refineries’ assets for purposes aligned with decarbonization targets, along with emissions mitigation in the sector, reduces risks of carbon lock-in and of asset stranding. To our knowledge, this is the first study that evaluates emissions mitigation in the refining sector and also uses an integrated assessment model to investigate oil refining repurposing and co-processing options in the context of decarbonization.