Abstract

The increase in energy and food prices after Russia’s war in Ukraine is weighing on private demand, activity, and inflation. Real GDP growth has decelerated to 2–3 percent in 2022, after recovering by 10.7 percent in 2021, and inflation increased to more than 11 percent. Growth is projected to moderately pick up to 3.5 percent in 2023, and inflation to decline to 5 percent, though these forecasts crucially depend on the assumption that international commodity prices will ease. Uncertainty remains high, with risks to the downside for growth and to the upside for inflation.

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