Reproductive Changes in the Population of the Republic of Croatia

Abstract

Knowledge of demographic trends is the basis for policy making, both economic, social, health, etc., as well as population policy. The Republic of Croatia has been facing demographic problems for many years, mainly an increase in the elderly population with a simultaneous decrease in the reproductive base and the number of young people. Croatia is one of the countries in the post-transition stage of population characteristics, characterized by the transition of the total fertility rate from a low positive rate to a level that no longer ensures the renewal of generations, and the mortality rate, which is determined by increasing life expectancy. In the Republic of Croatia, fertility is measured by the periodic total fertility rate, which indicates the average expected number of live births that a woman of fertile age (15 to 49 years) would give birth to. The total fertility rate of 2.1 children is often cited in the literature and among the public as the numerical level of generational change, while the Republic of Croatia has recorded a total fertility rate below this level for decades, i.e., 1.48 (2020). Another important characteristic of the post-transition period is late childbearing. The age limit for marriage and readiness to have a first child is increasing. The average age of a mother at the birth of her first child increased from 23.5 years (1960) to 29 years (2020), which significantly shortens a woman's reproductive time. Due to numerous factors, the number of live births has decreased from 95,560 children in 1960 to 35,845 children in 2020, a decrease of 59,715 live births. The subject of this work is a study of the reproductive determinants of population development in the Republic of Croatia, focusing on the determination of the factors influencing fertility and the quantitative presentation of demographic indicators. The aim of this work is to find the cause of declining fertility. Therefore, this work analyzes the factors that influence fertility. Due to the resulting birth deficit, it is necessary to take measures to promote births. Therefore, in the concluding remarks, recommendations are given for improving the demographic situation in the Republic of Croatia in the context of promoting births and increasing fertility. Keywords: reproductive changes, fertility, Republic of Croatia, total fertility rate