Reproducibility of San Andreas Fault Slip Rate Measurements at Wallace Creek in the Carrizo Plain, CA

Abstract

AbstractReproducibility of results from scientific studies is rarely demonstrated outside the laboratory. Measurements of fault slip rate underpin scientific models of active faulting and seismic hazard assessments widely used for policymaking and risk mitigation. We replicated a highly referenced study that measured the slip rate as 33.9 ± 2.9 mm/year along the San Andreas fault over the past ~3,700 years at Wallace Creek in the Carrizo Plain National Monument, USA. Our results provide a slip rate of slip 36 ± 1 mm/year since ~3,500 CalBP. We find that the late Holocene slip rate of the San Andreas fault, a key indicator of seismic hazard, is reproducible within measurement uncertainty. Geologic slip rate determinations are relatively insensitive to short‐term fluctuations and thus should be reproducible if the time interval of measurement is much greater than the average rupture interval.