Representing hydropower in the dynamic power sector model and assessing clean energy deployment in the power generation mix of Nepal

Abstract

This paper presents a new modeling approach to incorporate operational characteristics of different types of hydropower in long-term power sector models. The existing literature and methods were reviewed, and the mathematical formulation of the developed model is presented. The model is then used to analyze the future power generation mix of Nepal, a country with huge untapped hydro resources, as a case study. The possible power sector development pathway has been assessed through three different electricity demand growth rate scenarios. The optimal deployment of indigenous hydro and renewables is further evaluated by developing zero-emission scenarios as a conceivable policy to strengthen national energy security. The sensitivity analysis of governing parameters and evaluation of simulation results was performed to validate the model. Simulation results for capacity and generation mix along with emission level and total power system costs have been discussed for each scenario. Power dispatch and operation schedule determined as a result of optimization take account of the seasonal variations of river inflow and operational benefits of hydropower. Sensitivity analysis is carried out to examine the impact of construction cost, availability factor and water storage capacity on total cost, capacity requirements and optimal operation of hydropower.