Abstract
Foresight scenarios are not only useful presentational devices to show that many aspects of the future are open. Scenarios are means for generating advice that helps policymakers initiate actions in the present or near future that will be of long-term significance. Despite the influence that such advice may have on policy decisions, the Foresight literature has paid very little attention to the creation of policy recommendations. Though reports of scenario exercises frequently conclude with lists of recommendations that follow from the study, there is very little explication of the process whereby advice is elicited from the examination of these future scenarios. This paper addresses this gap, examining how the generation of recommendations is related to the development of scenarios within multiple future repositioning workshop settings. It focuses on the fluency and originality of these recommendations, and how this is influenced by repositioning participants in highly transformational scenarios. Repositioning is the process whereby participants are invited to imagine themselves playing roles in hypothetical future contexts, and on that basis to make decisions or devise strategies as if they actually were immersed in these circumstances. The method proposed and the findings of the case study have implications for why and how this future repositioning approach can be incorporated as a ‘key feature’ in the design of Foresight activities. The aim is also to raise awareness of the need for more exploration of Foresight recommendation methodology.
Highlights
Foresight is widely recognized to be a policy instrument that provides structured anticipation through the examination of alternative futures [Dator, Rodgers, 1991; De Jouvenel, 1967; Gabiña, 2005; Godet, 1992; Havas, 2005; Kuwahara, 1996; Malaska, 2001; Miles et al, 2008a,b]
Beyond serving as good presentational devices to show that many aspects of the future are open, future scenarios are used in Foresight activities to support the development of recommendations that can help decision-makers to initiate actions that affect an extended present
The examination of the Visions on the European Research Area” (VERA) project presented here has tackled a gap in the literature: the absence of empirical analysis of how scenario methodologies can shape the advice generated by Foresight activities
Summary
Foresight is widely recognized to be a policy instrument that provides structured anticipation through the examination of alternative futures [Dator, Rodgers, 1991; De Jouvenel, 1967; Gabiña, 2005; Godet, 1992; Havas, 2005; Kuwahara, 1996; Malaska, 2001; Miles et al, 2008a,b]. Foresight activities can be seen as having anticipatory and recommending phases, the former consisting of explicating ongoing changes and alternative futures, the latter concerning the development of policy advice based on such understandings. Foresight activities frequently include participative and interactive workshops as settings in which to develop alternative futures Such workshops are defined as “temporary socio-spatial crystallisations of expertise, with a particular sort of socio-spatial group dynamics, in which different instruments and tools are deployed in order to endorse knowledge creation” [Dufva, Ahlqvist, 2015]. The legitimacy of Foresight is sometimes questioned, not least because of the loose connections between the Foresight activity and the actual decision-making process [Uotila et al, 2005] This is not just a matter of policymakers necessarily having to take into account political machinations and democratic pressures alongside (and sometimes overruling) the recommendations stemming from long-term analyses. Given that the creation of visions is crucial for the recommending phase of Foresight - during which a range of alternative actions or policy recommendations are generated - very few studies have documented the process whereby Foresight projects generate recommendations drawing on these visions
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
