Reporting actuarial risk

Abstract

This chapter summarises the strengths and weaknesses of actuarial risk data and to contribute to developing guidance on best practice when using actuarial measures in adversarial settings. It offers counter-argument to some of the criticism and myths around actuarial risk data. Actuarial risk assessment instruments provide several types of information that could be of value to decision makers. Professionals working with violent and sexual offenders are often called on to assess the risk of recidivism they present. In modern forensic psychology there are basically three different methodological approaches to risk assessment: unstructured clinical judgement (UCJ), actuarial risk assessment instruments (ARAIs) and structured professional judgement (SPJ). The use of actuarial risk assessment instruments should be an integral part of forensic psychological practice because the research has indicated that actuarially-based instruments are the best available instruments for the prediction of recidivism risk in different offender populations.