Report on Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2B observations of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline methane leak

Abstract

Abstract. In late September 2022, explosions of the Nord Stream pipelines caused what could be the largest anthropogenic methane leak ever recorded. We report on Landsat 8 (L8) and Sentinel-2B (S-2B) observations of the sea-foam patch produced by the Nord Stream 2 (NS2) leak located close to Bornholm island, acquired on 29 and 30 September, respectively. Usually, reflected sunlight over sea is insufficient for these Earth imagers to observe any methane signal in nadir-viewing geometry. However, the NS2 foam patch observed here is bright enough to possibly allow the detection of methane above it. We apply the multi-band single-pass (MBSP) method to infer methane enhancement above the NS2 foam patch and then use the integrated mass enhancement (IME) method in a Monte Carlo ensemble approach to estimate methane leak rates and their uncertainties. This very specific NS2 observation case challenges some of MBSP and IME implicit assumptions and thus calls for customized calibrations: (1) for MBSP, we perform an empirical calibration of sea-foam albedo spectral dependence by using sea-foam observations in ship trails, and (2) for IME, we yield a tailored effective wind speed calibration that accounts for a partial plume observation, as methane enhancement may only be seen above the NS2 sea-foam patch. Our comprehensive uncertainty analysis yields large methane leak rate uncertainty ranges that include zero for single overpasses and, assuming they are independent, a best estimate of 502 ± 464 t h−1 for the combined averaged L8 and S-2B emission rate. Within all our Monte Carlo ensembles, positive methane leak rates have higher probabilities (80 %–88 %) than negative ones (12 %–20 %), thus indicating that L8 and S-2B likely captured a methane-related signal. Overall, we see our work both as a nuanced analysis of L8 and S-2B contributions to quantifying the NS2 leak emissions and as a methodological cautionary tale that builds insight into MBSP and IME sensitivities.