Reply [to Comment on “Prediction of the Haicheng Earthquake”

Abstract

Mr. Huebsch misjudges the perspicacity and sophistication of the American Haicheng Earthquake Study Delegation. The members of the group were carefully selected for their ability to gather and critically evaluate all information that might be provided by their hosts about the successful prediction of the Haicheng earthquake. As one who played a small part in nominating the members, I know that several of the scientists were chosen not only for their knowledge of the subject involved, but also for their highly critical, often skeptical approaches to judging observations and research results, including their own. In the selection process, full recognition was given to the importance of including a good scientist ‘able to converse in the language of the country.’ Francis Wu, a seismologist of established high reputation, was included for this specific reason. U.S. scientists hoped for, and I believe received, the results of the most penetrating examination of the Chinese data, analyses, and prediction methods possible within the constraints imposed by the hosts.