Abstract
Prior probabilities represent a core element of the Bayesian probabilistic approach to relatedness testing. This letter opinions on the commentary Use of prior odds for missing persons identifications by Budowle et al., published recently in this journal. Contrary to Budowle et al., we argue that the concept of prior probabilities (i) is not endowed with the notion of objectivity, (ii) is not a case for computation, and (iii) does not require new guidelines edited by the forensic DNA community--as long as probability is properly considered as an expression of personal belief.
Highlights
Prior probabilities represent a core element of the Bayesian probabilistic approach to relatedness testing
’What is the probability that these human remains are those of this missing person?’ This question represents a typical example of Bayesian inference: an initial state of belief, expressed in terms of probabilities based on preliminary circumstantial information, can be revised through scientific data– in particular results of DNA analyses
As noted by Budowle et al [1] in their commentary Use of prior odds for missing persons identifications, a reasoner’s opinion after the consideration of genetic data is a function of the initial state of belief, so that there is some interest in inquiring about its foundations
Summary
Prior probabilities represent a core element of the Bayesian probabilistic approach to relatedness testing. ’What is the probability that these (unidentified) human remains are those of this missing person?’ This question represents a typical example of Bayesian inference: an initial state of belief, expressed in terms of probabilities (or, alternatively odds) based on preliminary circumstantial information, can be revised through scientific data– in particular results of DNA analyses.
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