Abstract

The snowfall prediction is important in winter and early spring because snowy conditions generate enormous economic damages. However, there is a lack of previous studies dealing with snow prediction, especially using land surface models (LSMs). Numerical weather prediction models directly interpret the snowfall events, whereas the LSMs evaluate the snow cover fraction, snow albedo, and snow depth through interaction with atmospheric conditions. When the initially-developed empirical parameters are local or inadequate, we need to optimize the parameter sets for a certain region. In this study, we seek for the optimal parameter values in the snow-related processes – snow cover fraction, snow albedo, and snow depth – of the Noah LSM, for South Korea, using the micro-genetic algorithm and the in-situ surface observations and remotely-sensed satellite data. Snow data from surface observation stations representing five land cover types – deciduous broadleaf forest, mixed forest, woody savanna, cropland, and urban and built-up lands – are used to optimize five snow-related parameters that calculate the snow cover fraction, maximum snow albedo of fresh snow, and the fresh snow density associated with the snow depth. Another parameter, reflecting the dependence of snow cover fraction on the land cover types, is also optimized. Optimization of these six snow-related parameters has led to improvement in the root-mean squared errors by 17.0 %, 8.2 %, and 5.6 % on snow depth, snow cover fraction, and snow albedo, respectively. In terms of the mean bias, the underestimation problems of snow depth and overestimation problems of snow albedo have been alleviated through optimization of parameters calculating the fresh snow by about 45.1 % and 32.6 %, respectively.

Highlights

  • Land surface models (LSMs) act as the lower boundary conditions for regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models, to which they provide the surface fluxes (Ek et al, 2003)

  • Most snow processes in the land surface models (LSMs) are parameterized based on the observations in specific local regions, and they may not represent adequately the situation in South Korea (SK) and be the source of uncertainties for numerical snow prediction over SK. 45 This study aims at obtaining the optimal parameter values of the snow-related processes — snow cover, snow albedo, and snow depth — in a LSM using the micro-genetic algorithm (GA), which causes a better LSM performance over SK

  • We found that the adequate spin-up periods were about 3 months and 1 year for soil moisture and soil temperature, respectively; the snow variables were insensitive to the initial condition changes, requiring no spin-up period

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Summary

Introduction

Land surface models (LSMs) act as the lower boundary conditions for regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models, to which they provide the surface fluxes (Ek et al, 2003). In LSMs. In particular, uncertainties in the snow-related processes of LSMs are appreciable and exert significant impacts on the performance of regional climate models to which the LSMs are coupled (e.g., Zhao and Li, 2015; Suzuki and Zupanski, 2018; Günther et al, 2019; Kim and Park, 2019; Xu et al, 2019; Jiang et al, 2020). In South Korea (SK), heavy 25 snowfalls are the third most serious source of natural disasters, following typhoons and heavy rainfalls (Kim et al, 2018)

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