Abstract
Past and future trends in the frequency of high danger fire weather conditions have been analysed for the UK. An analysis of satellite-derived burned area data from the last 18 years has identified the seasonal cycle with a peak in spring and a secondary peak in summer, the high level of interannual variability, and the lack of a significant trend despite some large events occurring in the last few years. These results were confirmed with a longer series of fire weather indices back to 1979. The Initial Spread Index (ISI) has been used for spring, as this reflects the moisture of fine fuel surface vegetation, whereas conditions conducive to summer wildfires are hot, dry weather reflected in the moisture of deeper organic layers which is encompassed in the Fire Weather Index (FWI). Future projections are assessed using an ensemble of regional climate models from the UK Climate Projections, combining variables to derive the fire weather indices. The results show a large increase in hazardous fire weather conditions in summer. At 2 °C global warming relative to 1850–1900, the frequency of days with “very high” fire danger is projected to double compared to a recent historical period. This frequency increases by 5 times at 4 °C of global warming. Smaller increases are projected for spring, with a 150 % increase for England at 2 °C of global warming and a doubling at 4 °C. A particularly large projected increase for late summer and early autumn suggests a possible extension of the wildfire season, depending on fuel availability. These results suggest that wildfire can be considered an “emergent risk” for the UK, as past events have not had widespread major impacts, but this could change in future. The large increase in risk between the 2 °C and 4 °C levels of global warming highlights the importance of global efforts to keep warming below 2 °C.
Highlights
IntroductionLarge wildfires have occurred across many parts of the world
Past and future trends in the frequency of high danger fire weather conditions have been analysed for the UK
The Initial Spread Index (ISI) has been used for spring, as this reflects the moisture of fine fuel surface vegetation, whereas conditions conducive to summer wildfires are hot, dry weather reflected in the moisture of deeper organic layers which is encompassed in the Fire Weather Index (FWI)
Summary
Large wildfires have occurred across many parts of the world. Areas affected have included Australia, California, Amazonia, Siberia and southern Europe. Many of these events have had severe impacts, such as loss of human lives, loss of wildlife and their habitats, destruction of houses and buildings and degraded air quality (Deb et al, 2020; Wang et al, 2021), and this has highlighted the threat posed by this natural hazard. In the UK, impacts have so far tended to be less severe and threats to human life are rare, but major incidents have led to significant impacts on air quality, wildlife, ecology and infrastructure (Belcher et al, 2021). The suppression of wildfires by fire and rescue services is costly and resource intensive
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