Abstract

We provide an updated sea level dataset for Dublin for the period 1938 to 2016 at yearly resolution. Using a newly collated sea level record for Dublin Port, as well as two nearby tide gauges at Arklow and Howth Harbour, we perform data quality checks and calibration of the Dublin Port record by adjusting the biased high water level measurements that affect the overall calculation of mean sea level (MSL). To correct these MSL values, we use a novel Bayesian linear regression that includes the Mean Low Water values as a predictor in the model. We validate the re-created MSL dataset and show its consistency with other nearby tide gauge datasets. Using our new corrected dataset, we estimate a rate of 1.08 mm/yr sea level rise at Dublin Port between 1953–2016 (95 % CI from 0.62 to 1.55 mm/yr), and a rate of 6.48 mm/yr between 1997–2016 (95 % CI 4.22 to 8.80 mm/yr). Overall sea level rise is in line with expected trends but large multidecadal varaibility has led to higher rates of rise in recent years.

Highlights

  • Global mean sea level is rising due to anthropogenic climate change (Devoy, 2015; Masson-Delmotte et al, 2021)

  • Using a newly collated sea level record for Dublin Port, as well as two nearby tide gauges at Arklow and Howth Harbour, we perform data quality checks and calibration of the Dublin Port record by adjusting the biased high water level measurements that affect the overall calculation of mean sea level (MSL)

  • The goal of this paper is to further investigate the sea level trend in Dublin Port through careful assembly and quality control 35 of the available data and by comparing sea level records collected from nearby tide gauges

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Summary

Introduction

Global mean sea level is rising due to anthropogenic climate change (Devoy, 2015; Masson-Delmotte et al, 2021). Understanding changes in mean sea level in Dublin is key for the protection of Ireland’s largest city and, from a national perspective, in understanding long-term sea level rise (SLR) in Ireland (DCC, 2005). Sea levels in Ireland had stabilised by the 20th century after which 20 sea levels began to increase again due to anthropogenic-induced warming (Masson-Delmotte et al, 2021).

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