Abstract

<strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor">Abstract.</strong> A methodological approach is proposed to provide an analytical (exponential-like) expression for the probability of occurrence of tornadoes as a function of the convective available potential energy and the wind shear (or, alternatively, the storm relative helicity). The resulting expression allows to compute the probability of tornado occurrence using variables that are computed by weather prediction and climate models, thus compensating for the lack of resolution needed to resolve these phenomena in numerical simulations.

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