Reply on RC2

Abstract

<strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor">Abstract.</strong> Non-stationary methods of flood frequency analysis are widespread in research but rarely implemented by practitioners who manage flood risk. One reason for this may be that research papers on non-stationary statistical models tend to focus on model fitting rather than extracting the sort of results needed by designers and decision makers. It can be difficult to extract useful results from non-stationary models that include stochastic covariates for which the value in any future year is unknown. Examples of such covariates include rainfall, temperature or indices of fluctuations of atmospheric pressure. We explore the motivation for including such covariates, whether on their own or in addition to a covariate based on time. We set out a method for expressing the results of non-stationary models, and their uncertainty, as an integrated flow estimate, which removes the dependence on a particular value of the covariates. This can be defined either for a particular year or over a longer period of time. The methods are illustrated by application to a set of 375 river gauges across England and Wales. We find annual rainfall to be a useful covariate at many gauges, sometimes in conjunction with a time-based covariate. For estimating flood frequency in future conditions, we advocate exploring hybrid approaches that combine the best attributes of non-stationary statistical models and simulation models that can represent the impacts of changes in climate and river catchments.