Reply on RC2

Mirianna Budimir

doi:10.5194/gc-2021-31-ac2

Abstract

There remains a gap between the production of scientifically robust forecasts, and the translation of these forecasts into useful information such as daily "bulletins" for decision-makers in early warning systems. There is significant published literature on best practice to communicate risk information, but very little to guide and provide advice on the process of how these bulletins have been, or should be, developed. This paper reviews two case studies where bulletins were developed for national and district-level government agencies and humanitarian responders: daily reports in response to Cyclones Idai and Kenneth in Mozambique, and prototype landslide forecast bulletins in Nilgiris and Darjeeling Districts of India. Primary data was collected from producers and intermediaries of the bulletins via interview, and secondary data analysed on: iterative changes in the bulletin development; minutes from internal discussions; and feedback from users to extract learning on both the content and process of developing the bulletins. There were significant similarities in the type of content included in the bulletins, such as the layout, choice of words, and use of visualisation that was consistent with published best practices. Both case studies experienced challenges dealing with uncertainty, complexity, and whether to include advice. There were also similarities in the processes and approaches taken to develop the bulletins. Both case studies took an iterative approach, developed feedback mechanisms, benefitted from experienced multi-disciplinary teams, emphasised the need for strong inter-relationships, and the importance and value of preparedness and protocols. A major challenge was the difficulty of balancing science capabilities with user needs, which did not become significantly easier to deal with given more time availability. The findings indicate that whilst more research is needed into existing or best practice processes to develop content for forecast bulletins, there is an existing body of experiential and intuitive knowledge and learning that already exists but is not yet captured in an appropriate format that could be of significant interest and value to those developing forecast information. This paper goes some way to capturing some of the learning from translating scientific forecasts into useful information, in particular on both the content and the process of developing forecast bulletins for decision-making.

Highlights

The findings indicate that whilst more research is needed into existing or best practice processes to develop content for forecast bulletins, there is an existing body of experiential and intuitive knowledge and learning that already exists but is not yet 25 captured in an appropriate format that could be of significant interest and value to those developing forecast information
40 As part of the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) and Natural Environmental Research Council (NERC) funded Science for Humanitarian Emergencies And Resilience (SHEAR) programme, two case studies have emerged on the development of early warning and forecast information for institutional decision-makers, for different hazards, and with different time pressures on the development of bulletin information
45 Kenneth in Mozambique, and prototype landslide forecast bulletins in Nilgiris and Darjeeling Districts of India. These case studies provide an opportunity to learn from these experiences, and extract relevant knowledge to guide others in the development and production of forecast products for institutional decision-makers. They provide an interesting opportunity to learn about the process of developing early warning and forecast information in the form of regular reports or “bulletins” for institutional decision-makers: what information and content should be included; how should it be framed; who needs to be 50 involved in the development of the information, and what skills or perspectives do they bring to the process; what are good and bad practices of developing bulletin information; and what can others learn from the experiences of those involved?

Summary

Introduction

30 There remains a gap between the production of complex scientific forecasts and warnings and the operational use of such information by institutional stakeholders in official decision-making roles such as government officials or civil society actors operating in a preparedness, risk reduction, or response capacity, who have a wide range of educational and professional backgrounds and information needs (Morss et al, 2005; McInerny et al, 2014; Stephens et al, 2015; Cumiskey et al, 2019). There are limited evidence-based guidance publications that document the process of developing natural hazard related forecast products for institutional decision-makers, and limited opportunity to learn from the experience of others This gap is beginning to be filled by recent publications from forecast and early warning programmes and initiatives that focus on research-into-action such as Hammersmith et al (2020) and Zhang et al (2019). 45 Kenneth in Mozambique, and prototype landslide forecast bulletins in Nilgiris and Darjeeling Districts of India These case studies provide an opportunity to learn from these experiences, and extract relevant knowledge to guide others in the development and production of forecast products for institutional decision-makers. There was pressure to move towards working on system operationalisation when the models, datasets and science underpinning the forecasts were still at an early stage

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Conclusion