Abstract
<strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor">Abstract.</strong> The Daedalus Ionospheric Profile Continuation (DIPCont) project is concerned with the question how in situ measurements in the lower thermosphere and ionosphere (LTI) can be extrapolated using parametric models of observables and derived variables. To reflect the pronounced change of temperature across the LTI, non-isothermal models for neutral density and also electron density are constructed from scale height profiles that increase linearly with altitude. Ensembles of model parameters are created by means of Monte Carlo simulations using synthetic measurements based on model predictions and relative uncertainties as specified in the Daedalus Report for Assessment. The parameter ensembles give rise to ensembles of model altitude profiles for LTI variables of interest. Extrapolation quality is quantified by statistics derived from the altitude profile ensembles. The vertical extent of meaningful profile continuation is captured by the concept of extrapolation horizons defined as the boundaries of regions where the deviations remain below a prescribed error threshold. The methodology allows for assessing how cost-critical elements of the Daedalus mission proposal such as perigee and apogee distances as major factors controling the necessary amount of propellant and radiation shielding, respectively, affect the accuracy of scientific inference in the LTI. First results are presented for dual-satellite measurements at different inter-spacecraft distances but also for the single-satellite case to compare the two basic mission scenarios under consideration. DIPCont models and procedures are implemented in a collection of Python modules and Jupyter notebooks supplementing this report.
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