Abstract
Sustainable flood risk management encompasses the implementation of nature-based solutions to mitigate flood risk. These measures include the establishment of land use types with a high (e.g. forest patches) or low (e.g. sealed surfaces) water retention and infiltration capacity at strategic locations in the catchment. This paper presents an approach for assessing the relative impact of such land use changes on economic flood damages and associated risk. This spatially explicit approach integrates a reference situation, a flood damage model and a rainfall-runoff model, considering runoff re-infiltration and propagation, to determine relative flood risk mitigation or increment related to the implementation of land use change scenarios. The applicability of the framework is illustrated for a 4800 ha undulating catchment in the region of Flanders, Belgium by assessing afforestation of 187.5 ha (3.9 %), located mainly in the valleys, and sealing of 187.5 ha, situated mainly at higher elevations. These scenarios result in a risk reduction of 57 % (100 856 â¬) for the afforestation scenario and a risk increment of < 1 % (535 â¬) for the sealing scenario.
Highlights
This spatially explicit approach integrates a reference situation, a flood damage model and a rainfall-runoff model, considering runoff re-infiltration and propagation, to determine relative flood risk mitigation or increment related to the implementation of land use change scenarios
The results of the comparative flood risk assessment framework indicate the potential of identifying optimal locations in catchments for off-site flood damage and risk reduction or minimization of flood risk increment
5 Conclusion The presented comparative flood risk assessment framework allows for an estimation of the relative reduction or increase in flood damages and risk due to the implementation of land use changes in the catchment, thereby explicitly taking into account off-site effects of these land use changes on runoff propagation
Summary
River flooding is a natural process, and poses a significant socioeconomic hazard, causing human distress and damage to properties and infrastructure. In Europe, floods caused approximately 52 billion euros overall losses and 1100 fatalities 20 between 1998 and 2009 (EEA, 2010). The economic losses associated with flood events have been on the increase in the past decades (since 1970), partly due to changing weather patterns (IPCC, 2014), but mainly driven by socioeconomic developments such as population growth, increasing wealth and ongoing urbanization in flood prone areas (Barredo, 2009; Bouwer, 2011; Koks et al, 2014). The increasing flood losses prompted a shift in flood management in Europe from a flood prevention policy to flood risk management policy (EEA, 2017), as detailed in the European Flood Directive (Directive 25 2007/60/EC, 2007). Flood risk is an expression of the expected flood damages over a certain period of time, e.g. the expected annual damages (Bubeck et al, 2011; Grossi and Kunreuther, 2005; Merz et al, 2010; de Moel et al, 2015)
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