Abstract
Gaining a holistic understanding of extreme weather, from its physical drivers to its impacts on society and ecosystems, is key to supporting future risk reduction and preparedness measures. Here, we provide an overview of the state-of-the-art, knowledge gaps and key open questions in the study of extreme weather events over the vulnerable eastern Mediterranean. This region is situated in a transition zone between subtropical and mid-latitude climates. Extreme weather is mainly governed by the large-scale atmospheric circulation and its interaction with regional synoptic systems, i.e., Cyprus Lows, Red Sea Troughs, Persian Troughs, ‘Sharav’ Lows, and high-pressure systems. Complex orographic features further play an important role in the generation of extreme weather. Most extreme weather events, including heavy precipitation, cold spells, floods and wind storms, are associated with a Cyprus Low or Active Red Sea Trough, whereas heat waves are related with either the Persian Trough and Sub-Tropical High-pressure systems in summer, or the ‘Sharav’ Low during spring time. Heat waves and droughts are projected to significantly increase in both frequency and intensity. In future decades, changes in heavy precipitation frequency and intensity may vary in sign and magnitude depending on the scale, severity and region of interest. There are still relatively large uncertainties concerning the physical understanding and the projected changes of cold spells, wind storms and compound events, as these types of events received comparatively little attention in the literature. We further identify knowledge gaps that relate to the societal impacts of extreme weather. These gaps mainly relate to the effects extreme weather may have on mortality, morbidity and infrastructure in the eastern Mediterranean. Research is currently limited in this context, and we call to strengthen the database of analyzed case-studies. We trust that this can only be suitably accomplished by inter-disciplinary and international regional collaborations, in spite of political unrest.
Highlights
Weather and climate extremes such as heat waves, cold spells, heavy precipitation, droughts, wind storms and compound 40 events induce detrimental socio-economic and ecological impacts
Wintertime cold spells have severe impacts on the eastern Mediterranean, and 525 can be associated with heavy precipitation in the form of snowfall. Such events are often favored by a concurrent upper-level anticyclone over northern or western Europe and a cyclone over the eastern Mediterranean, which together drive the transport of cold air masses to the region, whose moisture and stability properties are affected by the land-sea distribution they encounter along their path (e.g. Alpert and Reisin, 1986; Tayanç et al, 1998)
We focus on the physical processes that drive extreme weather, the observed trends and future projections of such events, and the societal impacts these types of 590 events may have
Summary
Weather and climate extremes such as heat waves, cold spells, heavy precipitation, droughts, wind storms and compound 40 events induce detrimental socio-economic and ecological impacts. These include excess mortality (e.g., Ryti et al, 2016; Ballester et al, 2019; Charlton-Perez et al, 2019), agricultural losses (e.g., Deryng et al, 2014; Ferrarezi et al, 2019) and ecosystem damage (e.g., Williams 2014; Caldeira et al, 2015; Boucek et al, 2016). The main objective of this manuscript is to review the state-of-the-art on extreme weather research in the eastern 65 Mediterranean, with a specific focus on the physical understanding, observed trends and future projections.
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