Abstract

Most Earth System Models (ESMs) neglect climate feedbacks arising from carbon release from thawing permafrost, especially from thawing of sub-sea permafrost (SSPF). To assess the fate of SSPF in the next 1000 years, we implemented SSPF into JSBACH, the land component of the Max Planck Institute Earth Model (MPI-ESM). This is the first implementation of SSPF processes in an ESM-component. We investigate three extended scenarios from the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In the 21st century only small differences are found among the scenarios, but in the upper-end emission scenario SSP5-8.5, especially in the 22nd century SSPF ice melting is more than 15 times faster than in the preindustrial period. In this scenario about 35 % of total SSPF volume and 34 % of SSPF area is lost by year 3000 due to climatic changes. In the more moderate scenarios, the melting maximally exceeds the preindustrial rate by a factor of 4 and the climate change induced SSPF loss (volume and area) by year 3000 does not exceed 14 %. Our results suggest that the rate of melting of SSPF ice is related to the length of the local open water season, and thus that the easily observable sea ice concentration may be used as a proxy for the change of SSPF.

Highlights

  • More than 1300 P g carbon are stored in the permafrost soils of the Arctic (Hugelius et al, 2014)

  • Our results suggest that the rate of melting of sub-sea permafrost (SSPF) ice is related to the length of the local open water season, and that the observable sea ice concentration may be used as a proxy for the change of SSPF

  • For the first time, a land component of an Earth System Models (ESMs) was used to project the development of SSPF ice until year 3000 by forcing it with extended CMIP6 scenarios spanning the likely range of climate change

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Summary

Introduction

More than 1300 P g carbon are stored in the permafrost soils (perennially frozen soils) of the Arctic (Hugelius et al, 2014). During the present interglacial period, the holocene, microbiological activity in partial thawed soils degraded a fraction of the stored organic carbon and released it to the atmosphere. Enhanced warming during the Anthropocene has in recent years accelerated this carbon release (Schuur et al, 2015). Discussion started: 3 September 2021 c Author(s) 2021.

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