Abstract

This study presents a framework for real-time tsunami force predictions by the application of mode decomposition based surrogate modelling with 2D-3D coupled numerical simulations. A limited number of large-scale numerical analyses are performed for a selection scenarios with variations in fault parameters to capture the distribution tendencies of the target risk indicators. Then, the proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) is applied to the analysis results to extract the principal modes that represent the temporal and spatial characteristics of tsunami forces. A surrogate model is then constructed by a linear combination of these modes, whose coefficients are defined as functions of the selected input parameters. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework to one of the tsunami-affected areas during the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011. Combining 2D and 3D versions of the stabilized finite element method, we carry out a series of high precision numerical analyses with different input parameters to obtain a set of time history data of the tsunami forces acting on buildings and the inundation depths. POD is applied to the data set to construct the surrogate model that is capable of providing the predictions equivalent to the simulation results almost instantaneously. Based on the acceptable accuracy of the obtained results, it was confirmed that the proposed framework is a useful tool for evaluating time series data of hydrodynamic force acting on buildings.

Highlights

  • 15 In order to estimate the potential damage due to a tsunami, predictions need to consider both the global aspect, such as the scale of the inundation areas, and the local hydrodynamic forces acting on individual houses and each type of infrastructure

  • Combining 2D and 3D versions of the stabilized finite element method, we carry out a series of high precision numerical analyses with different input parameters to obtain a set of time history data of the 10 tsunami forces acting on buildings and the inundation depths

  • The present study proposes a framework for real-time tsunami force predictions by the application of the proper orthogonal decomposition (POD)-based surrogate modelling of numerical simulations

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Summary

Introduction

15 In order to estimate the potential damage due to a tsunami, predictions need to consider both the global aspect, such as the scale of the inundation areas, and the local hydrodynamic forces acting on individual houses and each type of infrastructure. Since this study considers multiple evaluation points to determine tsunami force, the methods employed in Fukutani et al (2019) and Kotani et al (2020), which require surrogate models to be defined at each evaluation point, are inefficient To overcome this problem, a mode decomposition technique is used to construct a surrogate model. The present study proposes a framework for real-time tsunami force predictions by the application of the POD-based surrogate modelling of numerical simulations. Details of the method is explained in the appendix(see Appendix A)

Mode Decomposition
Construction of the surrogate model
Tsunami simulation
Wide-area 2D tsunami analysis
Connecting the 2D and 3D analyses
Application of proper orthogonal decomposition
Evaluation points
Extracted spatial modes and construction of a surrogate model
12 Evaluation point 2
Validation of the surrogate models
10 Evaluation point 8
Conclusions

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