Abstract
A mathematical model was constructed to determine the theoretical effectiveness of selection under various protocols in initial trials of clonally propagated crops. Effectiveness was quantified as the proportion of top phenotypes selected that can also be expected to be the best genotypes in trial. In the absence of replication there is a non-linear increase in this proportion with increase in broad-sense heritability. The proportion of best genotypes included is reduced as the intensity of selection increases. Replication effectively raises broad-sense heritability. The resulting increases in selection effectiveness are quantified for three levels of single-plant heritability (0.1, 0.5 and 0.9) and three selection intensities (0.1, 0.01 and 0.001) using a model based on the Normal Distribution and in which it is assumed that the trial area increases in size in direct relation to the degree of replication.
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