Replacing Russian gas with that of the United States: A critical analysis from the European Union energy security perspective

Abstract

The security of gas supply is one of the main concerns for the European Union (EU), especially when considering the EU’s dependence on Russian gas. The idea of importing liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States has recently emerged as an alternative to reduce EU dependency on Russia. However, the idea still needs to be evaluated­, especially the extent to which it is beneficial or practicable for EU gas security. Composing as it does an appropriate indicator, namely the risks to the EU gas supply, this current research attempts to evaluate the idea of substitution. The composed touchstone comprises critical elements, including political risks for gas supply and transit, the importance of natural gas imports in the gross domestic product, and fungibility of the import. This indicator has then been applied to six selected member states. The results of our analysis indicate that importing gas from the United States improves supply security in five cases. Nevertheless, the benefits of substitution should be evaluated­ considering the limitations of available infrastructures and the economic factors. This could suggest that importing the U.S. LNG can be a feasible policy for Poland and the Baltic States, however, not necessarily for Germany, Italy and, especially, France. Therefore, replacing Russian gas with the U.S. LNG entails some prerequisites before being considered a beneficial alternative for EU gas security.