Replacement-Level Fertility has Now Become the Rule In Most of Eastern Europe

Abstract

Replacement level fertility in 7 eastern European countries from 2 studies are discussed in terms of the effects of policy on fertility completed cohort fertility mean age at childbearing cohort fertility by birth order and abortion and contraception. Several trends appear: 1) between about 1945-65 fertility declined throughout eastern Europe and 2) after 1965 fertility stabilized with variations in timing and magnitude. The fluctuations are attributed to pronatalist measures that restricted abortion and contraception after 1965 abortion laws were liberalized during the 1950s. Countries with the most radical changes in abortion law experienced the greatest declines in annual fertility i.e. Romanias total fertility rate (TFR) fell dramatically after abortion was legalized in 1956; however in Hungary fertility declines were from 2.6 to 2.0 births/women by 1960 after liberalization in 1956 but strong pronatalist measures preceded liberalization by 3 years. IN Bulgaria Poland and Yugoslavia fertility declined only slightly or sporadically and restrictions on abortions were either gradual or minimal. Czechoslovakia relaxed its abortion law in 1965 but introduced childbearing incentives; the result was a sudden increase in fertility and then a return to the prior level. Romania is considered the best example of the effects of government intervention on fertility. East Germany is also discussed. Demographic policy only marginally affected cohort fertility or completed fertility. The mean age at childbearing also decreased after World War II (WWII) i.e. between 1950-60 in Czechoslovakia the mean age dropped by 2 years. Liberalization around 1965 slowed or stopped the decline in mean age. East Germany and Bulgaria followed this pattern. Pronatalist measures contributed to a further decline in mean age at childbearing. Confounding factors were 1) laws that were contradictory cancelled each other out in longitudinal measures such as completed fertility and 2) laws were directed either at small or large families. Cohort fertility was examined by birth order; findings were that higher order fertility dropped in the 1935-50 cohorts and for later cohorts slowed or reversed itself. In countries where higher order births were lowest 2nd and 3rd births increased. The gap between high and low fertility countries has narrowed. The incidence of abortion was examined from national registry statistics and found to vary widely between countries and follow a non-western pattern. Since WWII abortion was the most frequently used method of preventing unwanted births in eastern Europe.