Abstract
Are NFL betting markets efficient? The 2012 labor dispute between the NFL and the referees is used as a quasi-experiment to assess whether the betting markets are able to achieve accurate “prices” in an uncertain environment. While the total points scored and, hence, the accuracy of the totals market does not change much with the replacements, evidence is presented that underdogs performed relatively better resulting in upsets and closer-than-expected games. Betting markets, though, were unable to anticipate or adjust to this systematic effect. Not only were they inefficient, but profitable betting strategies can be identified.
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