Repercussions of unreported populace on disease dynamics and its optimal control through system of fractional order delay differential equations

Abstract

Among many other factors that affect the preventive interventions to any infectious disease, not reporting timely in a hospital is also one of the catastrophic behavior of human beings in any society. Similarly, masses who do not report make it difficult for healthcare researchers to measure the actual data and develop prevention strategies, accordingly. Therefore, there is a critical need to structure a potential epidemic model with the unreported class of individuals. This novel idea is deliberated in this paper to study the profiles of the epidemic model of virulent diseases due to the individuals that report timely and those who don't report in hospitals for any reason. Mathematically, a system of seven equations is taken into consideration, which describes the susceptible individuals, exposed, people who do not report to the hospital and those who report to the hospital, and individuals who are quarantined, infected, and recovered. So, with the consideration of new compartments, the conventional SIR epidemic model expands to SEURRPQIR. The innovative design is made more realistic by utilizing proportional fractional-order differential equations with time delay. A special simplified expansion of this derivative reduces its computational cost and produces the results with fractional index, which helps to predict each fractional change. In addition, an optimal control methodology is also carried out to analyze the effectiveness of the awareness campaign in shifting the unreported individuals to the reported class, with optimal cost function for the unreported cases. Discussions are supported through the very recent deadly pandemic as an example to conclude the practical advantage of the model. The sensitivity analysis of basic reproduction numbers based on effective awareness campaigns is also the part of this study, which infers public awareness campaigns may be devised to motivate and guide such individuals to approach any healthcare center or a hospital.