Abstract
The idea of damming the Congo River has persisted for decades. The Grand Inga project, of up to 42 GW power generation capacity, can only be justified as part of a regional energy master plan for Africa, to bridge the energy gap on the continent. Proponents of very large dams have often exaggerated potential multiple benefits of a mega dam, marginalise environmental concerns and neglect the true risk of such projects, in particular for the fragile economies of developing countries. Studies have reported the financial risks, cost overruns and schedule spills associated with very large dams. In addition, most of the dams in the region are poorly managed. Therefore, the type and scale of Grand Inga is not the solution for millions of not yet electrified people in Sub-Saharan Africa. In this research, scenarios are defined based on announced costs and expected costs. Cost escalations in the range from 5% to 100% for the Inga project in 2030 and 2040 are considered, as average cost overruns are typically at about 70% or higher for similar mega-dams. It was found that when the cost overrun for the Grand Inga project exceeds 35% and −5% for 2030 and 2040 assumptions, respectively, the project becomes economically non-beneficial. In all scenarios, Sub-Saharan Africa can mainly be powered by solar photovoltaics to cover the electricity demand and complemented by wind energy, supported by batteries. Hydropower and biomass-based electricity can serve as complementary resources. The grid frequency stability of the power system is analysed and discussed in the paper. Benefits of the Inga hydropower project have to be increasingly questioned, in particular due to the fast cost decline of solar photovoltaics and batteries.
Highlights
Energy is vital to Africa’s development [1]
The least cost energy configurations were derived based on certain constraints and characterised by optimized installed capacities of renewable energy (RE) electricity generation, storage and transmission for every technology used in the model
In comparison to other RE technologies the share of PV dominates in all the scenarios
Summary
Consistent, and cost-effective energy supply to meet the current energy deficit and future demand. The currently insufficient generation capacity and growing demand require rapid response, and they should be managed in a sustainable way [2]. Investment in a sustainable energy infrastructure is a crucial link between economic growth, development and climate action. Renewable energy optimization will reduce the reliance on fossil fuel as the predominant energy source in the power system, and address socio-economic development needs and vulnerability to environmental alterations [3,4]. One proposed response to address the energy challenges and persistent infrastructural gaps in Africa is to significantly increase investment in large hydropower dams [5,6]. The question arises, are large dams the solution to energy insufficiency and should more dams be built in Africa? This is especially relevant when considering that most dams in Africa underperform due to poor maintenance [5]
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