Abstract
This article discusses the threats and opportunities of Russia's forthcoming economic development. The author shares his point of view that the country has become strongly dependent on natural resource rents generated in the economy's extractive sectors, mainly in oil and gas production. The energy and raw materials version of economic development is supported by a group of interests in the power and manufacturing elites, which are found in those industrial and infrastructure sectors that are based on mature "rent distribution chains." In this case, it is becoming practically impossible to overcome the inertia of energy and raw materials development. Conclusion: transition to development based on innovation will begin only after significant reduction of natural resource rents. Two versions of the forecast for Russia's economic development up to 2030 are also analyzed. These versions, energy and raw materials and innovation, were recently produced by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. The analysis shows that the differences between the versions are not qualitative.
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