Renormalization of branching models of triggered seismicity from total to observable seismicity

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Several recent works point out that the crowd of small unobservable earthquakes (with magnitudes below the detection threshold md) may play a significant and perhaps dominant role in triggering future seismicity. Using the ETAS branching model of triggered seismicity, we apply the formalism of generating probability functions to investigate how the statistical properties of observable earthquakes differ from the statistics of all events. The ETAS (epidemic-type aftershock sequence) model assumes that each earthquake can trigger other earthquakes (“aftershocks”). An aftershock sequence results in this model from the cascade of aftershocks of each past earthquake. The triggering efficiency of earthquakes is assumed to vanish below a lower magnitude limit m0, in order to ensure the convergence of the theory and may reflect the physics of state-and-velocity frictional rupture. We show that, to a good approximation, the statistical distribution of seismic rates of events with magnitudes above md generated by an ETAS model with branching ratio n is the same as that of events generated by another ETAS model with effective parameter n(md). Our present analysis thus confirms, for the full statistical (time-independent or large time-window approximation) properties, the results obtained previously by one of us and Werner, based solely on the average seismic rates (the first-order moment of the statistics). Our analysis also demonstrates that this correspondence is not exact, as there are small corrections which can be systematically calculated, in terms of additional contributions that can be mapped onto a different branching model. We also show that this approximate correspondence of the ETAS model onto itself obtained by changing m0 into md, and n into n(md) holds only with respect to its statistical properties and not for all its space-time properties.