Abstract

The extension and intensity of the upwelling season in the NW Iberian Peninsula (42°N–43°N) have decreased by 30 and 45% over the last 40 years, respectively. Accordingly, the renewal time ( τ) of the Rías Baixas, four large coastal inlets where 15% of the World extraction of blue mussels occurs, has increased by 240%. We indirectly demonstrate here that the growing τ has caused the increasing occurrence of harmful microalgae in these embayments, dramatically affecting mussel raft cultivation. The equation D = 365(1 − exp(− τ/ c 1)) explains 80% of the variability of the number of days per year that mussels cannot be extracted from the hanging ropes because of the occurrence of harmful microalgae ( D). The coefficient c 1 = 37 ± 2 days indicates that an average τ over the upwelling season of >25 ± 1 or 50 ± 3 days reduce mussel extraction to only 50 or 25% of the year, respectively.

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