Renewable energy sources: conflicts and opportunities in a changing landscape

Abstract

Replacement of conventional energy sources with renewables such as solar panels and wind turbines requires adequate land. Impact assessments should be conducted to identify sites exhibiting least conflict with current and future land-uses and corresponding ecosystem services. We assessed the electricity potential and geographical distribution of wind turbines and solar panels for current land-use and under three Swiss land-change scenarios. The future scenario A2 with limited construction regulations, a liberalized market and more building surfaces increases the electricity potential of solar panels by 69% from 16.6 TWh (potential under current land-use and regulations) to a future 28.2 TWh. An increase of approximately 26% electricity potential from solar panels is expected for scenario B2 (regionalized economy) and the trend scenario. Wind-electricity potential could increase by 61% from 93 to 150 TWh under A2, and 29% under a B2 or trend scenario. The electricity potential for solar panels remains largely unaffected by conflicts with ecosystem services, but electricity production from wind could be reduced by as much as 98% due to conflicts with ecosystem services. Depending on the scenario used, low-conflict sites for solar panels and wind turbines could contribute between 85% (trend and B2 scenario) and >100% (A2 scenario) to the Swiss energy target of generating 25 TWh from new renewable energy sources by 2050. This includes expected technological developments. Positive impacts of sustainable energy production on regional economies are moderate and will not lead to strong changes in regional-economic development.