Abstract
High variable renewable energy (VRE) penetration led to the first-ever VRE curtailment in Japan, occurring in Kyushu in October 2018. Since then, there has been an average of 3% solar curtailment, with a peak of 13.7% in April 2019, resulting in approximately ¥9.6 billion of wasted energy. The VRE curtailment is expected to worsen as VRE penetration continues to increase along with nuclear energy increment in line with Japan’s 2030 energy goals. To prevent this curtailment and increase energy stability, a novel, logic-based forecasting method using hourly supply/demand data was developed. Initially, inaccurate results were returned; however, after several rounds of calibration that adjusted the quartile value of the max/min operating windows, the overall accuracy of this method was increased to 97% of real curtailment. This calibrated model was then used to test several curtailment mitigation scenarios. Some scenarios increased curtailment, while the two most successful scenarios, which reduced the installed nuclear capacity either seasonally or totally, limited curtailment by 95% and 97%, respectively. Another scenario with increased grid interconnection between regions reduced curtailment by 79%. Moreover, it would provide other benefits by unifying the national grid thereby increasing disaster resistance, reducing curtailment, improving grid flexibility and allowing for higher VRE penetrations. Currently, the situation is worsening, and some actions are required to reduce the curtailment and to achieve its 2030 energy goals in Japan. The mitigation measures studied by the logic method could be recommended to be referred to.
Highlights
The energy sector in Japan has changed dramatically since the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster, with a substantial increase in solar photovoltaic (PV) penetration due to a high feed-in tariff (FIT) introduced in Japan in 2012 [1]
The statistical indices are not always the best indication of fit, so some different options are chosen based on observed fit, highest R2 and RMSE and best curtailment sum
The sum% of the curtailment is very high at 98.9%, the best result observed yet, with a low amount of solar neg
Summary
The energy sector in Japan has changed dramatically since the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster, with a substantial increase in solar photovoltaic (PV) penetration due to a high feed-in tariff (FIT) introduced in Japan in 2012 [1]. Kyushu and Hokkaido, have seen higher development of solar PV due to low land cost than the rest of Japan This very high growth rate is good for the energy self-sufficiency of Japan, which has been decreasing since the Fukushima disaster, and for the environment [2]. Curtailment is defined as the act of restricting or reducing the energy supply from a generator to the electrical grid. It can be classified as a type of inefficiency as not all the energy that is produced, is used. While curtailment can be useful to ensure energy balance, reducing the curtailment and thereby improving the system efficiency should be the goal of utility companies
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